As a long-term politics junkie, I had been dreading the Iowa caucus. The US presidential election of 2008 had been building up promise since the midterms – the promise of credible candidates who might not be white males of all unheard of things – and was lined up to be the fall back down to earth. The good caucus-goers of little Iowa could well have seen to it that the historically wide open field was chopped right down to size. "Barack Obama? For real?" "A Mormon?" "Hillary?" Well, actually, I'd been fearing a simple win for Romney and Clinton. If they had managed that, the primaries may well have been a foregone conclusion … the process being as it is. The two of them were clearly able candidates and each had institutional backing to put shame to many others. But they lost anyway. Suddenly things took a turn for the better.
Back in 2000 I was looking on from over here in Scotland and rooting for John McCain. I still quite like him, despite his choice to be the last standing contrarian on Iraq, though I don't rate his chances. Eight years ago he won a pretty resounding victory over the fellow the BBC insisted on calling George Bush Junior in New Hampshire, but Iowa's choice turned out to be the real winner. Bush and his people had money and manpower on their side and steamrollered the noted Vietnam vet and outsider. The Democrat race of the time proved to be even more boring. Indeed, that election only heated up after everything was over and it turned out to be the closest (and sourest) of modern times. Let's not dwell on the rightful winner!
In 2004 my perfectly ineffectual support went to John Edwards. Bush was irredeemable after the horrendously fateful decision to overlook Afghanistan and invade Iraq. I basically – as armchair expert – saw Edwards as the best possibility to unseat the incumbent. It was Iowa again which saw the early end to that idea. John Kerry, erudite bore, rushed to an early victory among the Democrats and went on to the brutally effective defeat written out for him in the first place. Edwards, the much more interesting running mate, got to lose his Senate seat for nothing other than an implied stain of failure. America and the world won four more years of misdirection. Happy-happy joy-joy.
So yeah … dread. I'd been listening to the commentators and watching the polls, but I didn't really think anything good would happen. Thankfully it did.
I'll make no secret of it: this time round I'm supporting Barack Obama. History making racial equality issues aside, he's the one who seems to understand the complexity of the wider world the best. Most of what he says about Iraq, Iran and the other regions where American influence is crucial, just sounds better grounded to my distant ears than what comes out of Hillary Clinton or (sigh) Rudi Giuliani. (Believe me: I'd like to be on Rudi's side in some ways but his foreign policy vision is nearly indescribably catastrophic!) I know it's hardly a surprise that a European would be backing a Democrat, and that Obama's obvious ability at speechmaking makes him an easy choice, but I like to humour myself and claim that there's real substance to this. He comes across to me as that rare combination of educated intellect like Kerry's, with charisma such as Edwards' or Clinton. No: Bill Clinton before you ask. That really is a weakness for poor Hillary … though she of all people can get around it.
Then there's Huck. Why would a moderate like myself be happy about an Evangelical conservative from Arkansas coming in first in the Republican caucus? It's not the easy and obvious answer I more or less suggested by saying that! I take Huckabee seriously. I really do think he's been the dark horse of recent weeks and might well reach nomination. I also wouldn't count against him winning in November, whether up against Obama, Clinton or Edwards. So why am I pleased?
Because he's just the sort of candidate to really wake the Republicans up again and make this into an epic contest, that's why.
There's a tremendous amount to be decided by whoever becomes the next president. I'm not just saying that as one of so many who couldn't abide George W, but as a fairly self evident piece of fact. We live in thoroughly interesting times. Climate change? Global terrorism? China? If anything, the Bush administration have been putting off everything that's come their direction since at least 2006. Much more is to come as well of course. Who expected national security and foreign policy to be so all-consuming back in the January snow of 2000? Not me.
I was busy cheering on plucky old John McCain. Who knows what could happen…
