As for politics, there’s been a big story. The French referendum on the EU constitution came out a pretty clear “non”. Already Raffarin has lost his job to everyone who can remember the UN antics before the Iraq war’s favourite, Dominique de Villepan. As for Chirac, he’ll probably be alright – being able to sack your Prime Minister is a pretty neat trick to be able to pull at times like these – though it’ll probably ensure this is his last term now. Interesting that de Villepan has never stood for elected office and yet has been Foreign Minister, Home Minister and now Prime Minister of France! Wonder when we’ll have someone like that pop out of our unwritten constitution? As for politics domestic, this puts more pressure on the already active “Blair’s time has come” campaign, popular among the press. He should never have announced his future resignation the fool … kicking issues you don’t like into the long grass is all fine and well, as long as your contempt for democracy is strong enough, but kicking oneself there is purely stupid! Supposedly it was widely expected that Blair, desperate to win a reputation for himself in retirement other than Iraq, was hell-bent on leading his last charge into posterity by taking Europe by the horns and actually trying to win that vote he’d promised next spring. Some hope. Even a sturdy kicking, as can only be expected, was to have been his valiant swan song. But now … well, after the little holiday this week, the gloves may be off. Unless we’re given a renewed promise, like the other EU countries yet to hold their referenda, that the climax to his ‘masochism strategy’ is still on, then what’s to hold Brown’s lot back now?
Other, that is, than their leader’s fatal flaw, his lack of killer instinct!
Actually, Brown is an interesting enough character to have many notable flaws. And his premiership will be a troubled one, when it comes. But I’m given to thinking that day will not be too soon. Blair can say “stuff it, we’ve nothing to vote on now” and there will be no coup. Just as the junior partner in their coalition (1994 to this day, and running) called off his dogs of Stop the War and let Blair have his victory in 2003 which has caused them all so much trouble. It could have been explained as a “let him have enough to hang himself”, but it’s not exactly paid off. If Blair keeps to his word – not 100% certain anyway I’ll have you know – and Brown is dumped in the deep of it at the time Blair’s hinted he has marked out, spring 2009, then Labour can be expected to have a rough 12 months or less in office before a taxing election indeed. In Scotland, where they least need it, they’ll get a lot of votes back. People here are suckers for a Scottish candidate, just look at the Lib Dems rise after Paddy Ashdown went for Charles Kennedy. But in England, in London and Birmingham and all the places that actually count for shit, well … Brown will have a fight on his hands indeed. Think 1992 and John Major. Only, without a recent popular war in Iraq from which to parade from the gun tower.
It’s not that I don’t like Gordon Brown. I’m just critical of his personal presentation and charismatic abilities compared to Tony “second coming” Blair. That, and I don’t exactly like the Labour party or believe in social democracy. For his pains, he made the wrong decision that evening in a fancy restaurant with his hitherto junior ally. You should never be sold on promises that big where you, of course, are to go second and not first. Whether you even trust them or not, it’s just madness to think you’ll ever get your turn when there’s little matters like general elections at stake. And then to have done it apparently without a pre-arranged handover date! He’s coming from a bad position. And I foresee trouble for him. Make it double if the tories, sometime this year, pick the competent, charismatic and sellable candidate they’ve long been looking for, after years of trying!
Hot damn, was I right. It's good to know I can call them every once in a while.
Perhaps that's why the air of change in politics on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment feels so good: because only three years ago it was still the thick of the old days. The eternal Blair was still in charge – and had another two years to go – Michael "Something of the Night about him" Howard was the opposition's man, and Barack Obama was only known over here to the kind of politics junkies who stayed up to see the Democratic convention a summer earlier. Guess who!?
The particular political matter of the day I started up about is quite forgotten now of course. European treaties are the stuff of yawns the continent finds itself truly united by. "No constitution please, we're British!" And of course Blair went down as a four letter word for the history books, just like his gifted predecessor and fellow Anthony: Eden.
The latter's career path reminds me more of the current prime minister, in that both served much longer as the eminent heir than the time they finally did get to hold the top job. But one particularly glaring exception is that Eden called a snap general election once his old man retired, and won it.
It's Callaghan which comes to mind with the polls the way they are now. The caretaker who could have won his own term if he'd only struck when time was right. And the poor bastard who's in for a hammering the night before the removal van turns up, to leave political life to the knowledge that some just don't ever win elections.
Two years. Tick tock…
