Bloody Hell Boris

All right, so I was wrong. Phew.

Looking at the figures though, I was on to something. It did indeed go to a second round; and Boris got less transfers than Ken Livingstone. Fortunately it was still fairly close (48% to 52% by my numbers) and far too little to overturn his widely expected first round lead.

One of the BBC's better analysts, Nick Robinson, has an interesting take on Boris's victory.

I agree that this is a huge test for the Tories. Fascinating that it should be via their well known outlier, right in the media's very den. It's being said a lot at the moment that David Cameron may come to rue this particular success; I doubt that myself. People underestimate Boris. I think this could prove to be brilliant.

Certainly, the biggest political schism in terms of image and supposed clout, is now plain to see in Gordon Brown versus Boris Johnson. I just so happen to think that Boris's style and defiantly odd empathic talent will outshine and out-manoeuvre old Gordon in dramatic and even mythic terms the media won't be able to resist. One bites his lip and tries to usher public opinion about as though his pent-up anger weren't writhing in every motion. The other apparently bumbles on, ineffably affable, as though put there just to taunt him. Cameron may just have had his most effective lieutenant placed into position.

Now: is it Boris's dad who wins the by-election?

I've Got a Bad Feeling About This…

The polls close in the hour.

Not here, north of the border, but down in some of England and London in particular. The new yet old Prime Minister faces the usual round of presumed bad results; to be shrugged off by repetitive and disinterested lieutenants in the media tonight and tomorrow. Nothing ever changes there. Add to this however the London mayor election and what was otherwise just a teacup of a contest becomes, by the media's local eye at least, something of a storm.

I don't think Boris will win though.

I'd like him to. I've been voting against Labour (and their Liberal cohorts) for a decade now, ever since I was old enough to vote, and yet so often it's come to naught. Their social democratic whim – albeit sometimes held behind a supposedly Margaret Thatcher shaped fig leaf – went against my principles, and it still does. Their recent shift from governing hegemony to shaky angst, is not alas due to an ideological tide among the public. It's a simple absence of the one thing which made Labour New back in 1997, and which troubled them so once 2003 invited an issue called Iraq to stay. Tony Blair of course. Gordon Brown is no Tony Blair. He's not even the Gordon Brown many of his supporters inside and outside the media had talked up for years to a supposed fever pitch of expectation. Instead, after his first fumble so soon in office, he came across as exactly the grumbling, resentful, inarticulate and indeed stereotypical jealous Scotsman as his enemies had predicted. I never believed the former line of bullshit myself, but even I have been impressed with just how obvious is his fumbling and just how loathing is reaction to all those outside his inner coterie; electorate and all.

But today is no general election. It's just some locals, and a rivalry between Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone. Indeed, in London: if only it were just that. But as I understand it, there's proportional representation at work again. Howard Dean would be proud.

So, as its close, here's my prediction just before it's too late: Boris will get more votes, but just like Al Gore in 2000 and maybe even Barack Obama in 2008, the other guy will win.

Bloody Liberals.